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    Is the U.S. market due for a correction?

    Is the U.S. stock market poised for a correction? Is January’s decline of 4% the start of a bigger correction?

    These are perfectly understandable questions. In fact, we hear them repeatedly when meeting with our clients here at Newport Private Wealth. And they are being heavily debated within our Investment Committee and by investment experts whose opinions we value. After all, the S&P 500 has increased by almost 50% in the last two years including 30% in 2013.

    The pessimists are arguing that:

    • the S&P 500 has increased for five consecutive years and a six-year streak has only happened once before (1982-89); and
    • market returns after two consecutive years of double digit returns have typically been modest; and
    • the stock market is expensive at 16x earnings.

    (Source: BMO Nesbitt)

    The optimists have compelling points to make as well. They argue that:

    • stock markets can and have traded well above the current P/E multiple when inflation is under 2%. (inflation is currently less than 1%); and
    • private investors remain very “under-invested” in the stock market. They withdrew $451 billion from 2006-12 and only reinvested $60 billion last year.

    This is a very common dilemma in the life of an investment manager such as Newport Private Wealth. We are repeatedly faced with conflicting facts and viewpoints, most of which are persuasive and compelling on some level.

    Will there be a correction in 2014? We think it’s likely. But corrections are a normal part of the investment cycle and they are often part of a long-term bull market. In fact, corrections are seen by many as a healthy part of the journey. They even provide an opening for those investors who are late to the game to get invested.

    Take a quick look at the chart below. The S&P 500 has doubled in the last five years and there have been four pullbacks along the way, including one correction of almost 20%.

    large decline Jan20141 Is the U.S. market due for a correction?(Source: WSJ Data Group)

    The more important question, in our view, is “are U.S. stocks a good place to make money over the next three or more years?”  We have confidence in our positive view of this question. But we would not be surprised to see one or more corrections along the way.

    However, we do feel that different strategies are in order at this point in the cycle. From our perspective, further gains in the U.S. market will have to be driven more by earnings growth rather than a broad-based market rise. Therefore, we believe that the right approach is to be more selective by way of prudent “stock-picking” as opposed to just owning “the market”. Lastly, we are currently holding healthy cash balances in our equity funds with the hope that we will be able to put the money to work at more attractive prices.

    Future looks bright for Vision Critical

    vc blog 150x150 Future looks bright for Vision Critical Rarely do we write about specific investments in this blog, however, a recent post by Wellington Financial about one of our private investments caught our attention and we thought to share it with our readers.

    Vision Critical’s $10.5M secondary clears the deck for potential IPO.

    Vision Critical is a fast-growing Canadian tech company that has become a major player in global market research solutions. The company was founded in 2000 by noted entrepreneur, Dr. Angus Reid (former founder of Angus Reid Group, Canada’s largest research and polling group) and his son, Andrew Reid.

    [read more >>]

    Passing wealth on now, later, ever?

    Today’s Globe & Mail High Net Worth section featured Newport Private Wealth in a piece by journalist Paul Brent entitled Don’t let your money spoil the kids.

    It deals with the issues, desires, opportunities and complications of wealthy baby boomers assisting their offspring financially — a subject that’s near and dear to our hearts and on which several of our colleagues have blogged. You can also read David Lloyd’s post on Catalyst Funding and Kevin Dean’s Engaging the Next Generation.

    For high net worth families concerned about preparing the next generation for responsible wealth management, remember that we offer an educational program for young adults, NextWave. Contact Caitlin Lloyd or Kevin Dean to learn more.

    Engaging the next generation

    At the end of November we held our launch event for NextWave, Newport Private Wealth’s initiative for young adults to help them become better equipped at managing wealth.

    We had a tremendous turnout with over 40 young adults in attendance for an evening of networking and a brief introduction to the concept of NextWave, as well as introductory topics that will lead into our future events. Feedback from attendees was enthusiastic: “These are exactly the kinds of questions I have but I don’t know who to talk to” and “I was so happy that I actually understood what you were talking about because I feel totally underprepared when it comes to financials”.

    The feedback confirmed our belief that there is a strong desire to learn. Young adults want to take more responsibility, but with little in hard financial assets early in their careers they feel like they don’t have access to qualified individuals to discuss their concerns. [read more >>]

    A small change with big meaning.

     

    i 3270c440a87bd21f245492ac44582b67 New Name 1photo 5 A small change with big meaning.Today we announced that we have rebranded as Newport Private Wealth.

    It’s a modest change – but meaningful in a couple of ways:
    One, it clearly defines what we do and who we are in business to serve.  We work for individuals and families who have accumulated wealth.   Full stop.
    Second, and most significantly, it is just one more step in our evolution to be the very best that we can be and create the very best experience possible for our clients. Clarifying and strengthening our brand is just one more milestone toward that goal.

     

    As is so often the case, the entire effort is better summed up by one of our clients, in something he wrote to us upon receiving the news last week.  Recalling on his own experience with the rebrand of a major corporation, he said, “the rebranding exercise provides all kinds of benefits…not the least of which is the creation of a natural opportunity to engage in conversation with clients and potential clients around what’s really behind the change in name and brand…and talking with clients is always a good thing!”
    We couldn’t agree more.  Further, this blog is just another way we want to engage in conversation with like-minded people who want to be responsible stewards of their wealth.
    We hope you’ll be part of that conversation.  Let’s chat anytime.
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    Newport Partners among top 20 Private Banks in Canada

    Euromoney magazine released the results of its annual global private banking survey.

    We’re pleased to have made the top 20 in Canada list again this year.

    i 1de8b9b2828b339acdb9f20531d279de EuroMoney2010 web(2) Newport Partners among top 20 Private Banks in Canada

    The Euromoney survey consists of a two-part on-line questionnaire measuring growth performance and ratings by peers at competitive and non-competitive firms.  More than 1,300 people participated worldwide representing $6.8 trillion of assets under management.

    It’s great to see the addition of some new names to the list – good independent firms — that add to the mix of large Canadian and global institutions.

    Overall I think Canadians are very well served and have a high quality selection of financial advisory firms to choose from. The challenge of course is in finding the one that’s right for you. So if you happen to be in the market, here are some things to consider when hiring an investment advisor.